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Winnipeg, MB, Jul 31, 2009 (Resource News International via COMTEX) -- The Canadian dollar closed stronger on Friday, after trading to both sides of unchanged over the course of the session. A generally weaker tone seen by the US dollar internationally provided some support.
The Canadian dollar was trading at 92.81 US cents or US$1=C$1.0775 near the close of trade Friday, which compares to Thursday's North American close of 92.23 US cents or US$1=C$1.0842.
Crude oil, gold, and other commodities were all higher on Thursday, which was supportive for the commodity-linked Canadian dollar. The advances in equities were also supportive, as market participants continued to show an increased appetite for risk on Friday.
The eventual strength in the Canadian dollar came despite softer-than-expected Canadian gross domestic product data. Statistics Canada reported that the country's gross GDP declined by 0.5% in May. Average market estimates had been for a more modest 0.3% decline, and the data initially weighed on the Canadian dollar.
Canadian markets will be closed Monday for a civic holiday.
Canadian bonds finished higher on Friday, outperforming their US counterparts. The soft Canadian GDP data contrasted with a better-than-expected reading out of the US, which accounted for some of the relative strength in the Canadian bond market, said
In the equities market, fundamental analysis looks to measure a company's true value and to base investments upon this type of calculation. To some extent, the same is done in the retail forex market, where forex fundamental traders evaluate currencies, and their countries, like companies and use economic announcements to gain an idea of the currency’s true value.
All of the news reports, economic data and political events that come out about a country are similar to news that comes out about a stock in that it is used by investors to gain an idea of value. This value changes over time due to many factors, including economic growth and financial strength. Fundamental traders look at all of this information to evaluate a country's currency.
Given that there are practically unlimited forex fundamentals trading strategies based on fundamental data, one could write a book on this subject. To give you a better idea of a tangible trading opportunity, let’s go over one of the most well-known situations, the forex carry trade. (To read some frequently asked questions about currency trading, see Common Questions About Currency Trading.)
A Breakdown of the Forex Carry Trade
The currency carry trade is a strategy in which a trader sells a currency that is offering lower interest rates and purchases a currency that offers a higher interest rate. In other words, you borrow at a low rate, and then lend at a higher rate. The trader using the strategy captures the difference between the two rates. When highly leveraging the trade, even a small difference between two rates can make the trade highly profitable. Along with capturing the rate difference, investors also will often see the value of the higher currency rise as money flows into the higher-yielding currency, which bids up its value.
Real-life examples of a yen carry trade can be found starting in 1999, when Japan decreased its interest rates to almost zero. Investors would capitalize upon these lower interest rates and borrow a large sum of Japanese yen. The borrowed yen is then converted into U.S. dollars, which are used to buy U.S. Treasury bonds with yields and coupons at around 4.5-5%. Since the Japanese interest rate was essentially zero, the investor would be paying next to nothing to borrow the Japanese yen and earn almost all the yield on his or her U.S. Treasury bonds. But with leverage, you can greatly increase the return.
For example, 10 times leverage would create a return of 30% on a 3% yield. If you have $1,000 in your account and have access to 10 times leverage, you will control $10,000. If you implement the currency carry trade from the example above, you will earn 3% per year. At the end of the year, your $10,000 investment would equal $10,300, or a $300 gain. Because you only invested $1,000 of your own money, your real return would be 30% ($300/$1,000). However this strategy only works if the currency pair’s value remains unchanged or appreciates. Therefore, most forex carry traders look not only to earn the interest rate differential, but also capital appreciation. While we’ve greatly simplified this transaction, the key thing to remember here is that a small difference in interest rates can result in huge gains when leverage is applied. Most currency brokers require a minimum margin to earn interest for carry trades.
However, this transaction is complicated by changes to the exchange rate between the two countries. If the lower-yielding currency appreciates against the higher-yielding currency, the gain earned between the two yields could be eliminated. The major reason that this can happen is that the risks of the higher-yielding currency are too much for investors, so they choose to invest in the lower-yielding, safer currency. Because carry trades are longer term in nature, they are susceptible to a variety of changes over time, such as rising rates in the lower-yielding currency, which attracts more investors and can lead to currency appreciation, diminishing the returns of the carry trade. This makes the future direction of the currency pair just as important as the interest rate differential itself. (To read more about currency pairs, see Using Currency Correlations To Your Advantage, Making Sense Of The Euro/Swiss Franc Relationship and Forces Behind Exchange Rates.)
To clarify this further, imagine that the interest rate in the U.S. was 5%, while the same interest rate in Russia was 10%, providing a carry trade opportunity for traders to short the U.S. dollar and to long the Russian ruble. Assume the trader borrows $1,000 US at 5% for a year and converts it into Russian rubles at a rate of 25 USD/RUB (25,000 rubles), investing the proceeds for a year. Assuming no currency changes, the 25,000 rubles grows to 27,500 and, if converted back to U.S. dollars, will be worth $1,100 US. But because the trader borrowed $1,000 US at 5%, he or she owes $1,050 US, making the net proceeds of the trade only $50.
However, imagine that there was another crisis in Russia, such as the one that was seen in 1998 when the Russian government defaulted on its debt and there was large currency devaluation in Russia as market participants sold off their Russian currency positions. If, at the end of the year the exchange rate was 50 USD/RUB, your 27,500 rubles would now convert into only $550 US (27,500 RUB x 0.02 RUB/USD). Because the trader owes $1,050 US, he or she will have lost a significant percentage of the original investment on this carry trade because of the currency’s fluctuation - even though the interest rates in Russia were higher than the U.S.
Another good example of forex fundamental analysis is based on commodity prices. (To read more about this, see Commodity Prices And Currency Movements.)
You should now have an idea of some of the basic economic and fundamental ideas that underlie the forex and impact the movement of currencies. The most important thing that should be taken away from this section is that currencies and countries, like companies, are constantly changing in value based on fundamental factors such as economic growth and interest rates. You should also, based on the economic theories mentioned above, have an idea how certain economic factors impact a country's currency. We will now move on to technical analysis, the other school of analysis that can be used to pick trades in the forex market.
US Dollar Faces Another Plunge, How Will Fundamentals Shape Things?
Euro Could Hit Fresh 2009 Highs If Data Signals End of EZ Recession
Japanese Yen Forecast Bullish but Price Action Depends on S&P 500
British Pound Outlook Hinges on Trends in Risky Assets
Swiss Franc May Regain Safe Haven Status As Global Growth Returns
Canadian Dollar May Change Course as Growth and Inflation Falter
Australian Dollar Favored for Growth and Risk Appetite
New Zealand Dollar Closes Near 2009 Highs – When Will it Turn?
Make Money in Choppy Markets:The Forex Markets do not create clear trend lines all the time. Quiet often we will experience very volatile markets and the prices can move dramatically up and down. Sometimes they can start to trend then also of sudden make a strange upward or downward movement which will trigger your stop loss and stop you out of the trade.So How can we trade this sort of Forex Marketand make money?1. Don't expect a long swing plan or any sustained price movements if you are already in an open position, get some profits out when you have made some from the forex market or shift it to the breakeven price as soon as possible. This will reduce the risk of losing that position.2. When you need to trade in these conditions trade the currencies pairs that are highly correlated. So we are talking about the top 6 currencies pairs.3. It can be also useful to use some level of Fundamental analysis such as referring to the calendar of economic announcements every now and then in forex trading. Sometimes a choppy market occurs when there is two or more economic data releasing at the same time or within a few hours. A particular news may trigger an up movement while the other one may trigger a down. Therefore it is a bad time to trade forex as you do not know exactly where the forex market is moving.4. Sometimes when the forex trading market is choppy, it forms range-trading channels, which sets one up for a breakout. If there's is no indication on which direction the market is moving, forex trader may go long when it's at the bottom range, and short when it is at the top range. This may earn you some pips, but again, it is better to wait for price to break out from the range-trading channels so that ideally you will be able to catch the breakout trend. This is why is why it is important to have a great forex broker too as they can help you with trading ideas. If you are looking for a Best Forex Brokerfeel free to visit the CFD FX REPORT as they have recently researched all the broker on the markets and can point you in the right direction.The above should help you when trading choppy currency markets, but they are no guarantees of success. If you don't feel comfortable with the trade don't do it. Remember the markets are open nearly 6 days per week and 24 hours per day so there is also going to be more trading opportunities. Sometimes the market can go through fazes of not trending at all so don't try and predict a trend otherwise you are gambling.About the AuthorThe CFD FX REPORT is a real time trading tool that offers clients free trading reports, with trading ideas, stock market and forex market education as well helping them with. Also if you are looking for a Forex Broker, then feel free to visit our broker section as we recently reviewed all the forex brokers and have found the best on the market.
The currency pair is trading near support at 1.0920, which in the case of endurance will allow for new growth of green money and will activate the double bottom formation with targets resistance at 1.0928 and 1.1057. In the opposite option, passing the price back below 1.0920 will direct the daily traffic to support 1.0805.
U.S. dollar rise in price by almost one cent against the Japanese currency during the Asian session, as the expectation is directed to test resistance at 96.70, in the case of addressing, the path to the next key level to 97.80 will be opened. In the opposite option, move in the direction favorable to the yen will give support to the daily movement in 95.50.
The currency pair euro / dollar retains trade within narrow limits despite sharp corrections with unclear direction in the Asian stock session. The price continues to trade at the upper limit of the rising price channel adjacent to the area for sale. If the trend of appreciation of the single currency is supported by maintaining stochastic oscillator, we may become witnesses to break the key resistance at 1.4060 followed by 1.4101. In turn option of purchasing a new wave of green money in order to gain quick adjustment would support 1.3722 and reaching the lower price limit rising price channel.
